More Than 7 Out of 10 North Carolinians Express Confidence in 2024’s Election, but Concerns About Voter Safety Exist

The following results from this general population survey regarding confidences and concerns about elections (margin of error, adjusted for weights of overall responses, is +/-3.87 percent; all subgroups have a higher margin of error) are based on respondents’ self-identification of their partisanship, race, education level, and age.

Respondents’ Partisan Self-Identification:

• When asked about election integrity in North Carolina, 83 percent of Democrats, 69 percent of Independents, and 63 percent of Republicans expressed confidence.
  • However, one-third of Republicans are not confident in the integrity of NC’s elections. (See Worksheet “NC election integrity”)

• Regarding North Carolinians’ perceptions of safety in casting ballots in 2024, bare majorities of partisans express that they are concerned with the safety of voting. Yet only 41 percent of Independents were concerned—with 55 percent of independents saying they were not concerned in the safety of voters casting ballots. (See Worksheet “NC voters’ safety”)

• When asked about the accuracy of vote counting in 2024, partisan differences among North Carolinians exist:
  • 89 percent of Democrats have confidence in their county accurately counting their vote
  • Two-thirds (66) of Republicans expressed confidence
  • Seventy (70) percent of Independents have confidence in their county counting their vote accurately. (See Worksheet “Your 24 vote county accurate”)

• When asked if “other North Carolinian’s votes beyond your county will be accurately counted in 2024,” 86 percent of Democrats said they were confident, while two-thirds of Independents (67) and 63 percent of Republicans said the same. (See Worksheet “NC 24 vote count accurate”)

• 53 percent of Republicans were not confident when asked about “votes outside of North Carolina will be accurately counted in 2024.” Only 42 percent of Republicans responded as being confident.
  • Only 15 percent of Democrats expressed a lack of confidence, while 83 percent had confidence.
  • Among Independents, 30 percent expressed a lack of confidence, while 62 percent expressed confidence in the accuracy of vote counting outside the state. (See Worksheet “Outside NC 24 vote count”) 

• 84 percent of North Carolinians said it was important that “the losing candidates publicly accept the winning candidates as the legitimate winners in North Carolina,” while 16 percent said it was not important.
  • 94 percent of Democrats, 82 percent of Independents, and 79 percent of Republicans said it was important. (See Worksheet “Losing candidates accept result”)

Respondents’ Race

• In general, self-identified White North Carolinians are less likely to believe that their vote was accurately counted in the 2020 election (78 percent very or somewhat confident among whites versus 90 percent among Blacks; see Worksheet “Your 2020 vote count accurate”).

• Looking forward, however, self-identified Whites are roughly as likely as self-identified Blacks to believe the votes will be accurately counted in their county in 2024. (see Worksheet “Your 24 vote county accurate)

• White and Black North Carolinians have similar attitudes towards levels of confidence in poll workers, election administration, and the NC State Board of Elections. (see specific worksheets)

• Black North Carolinians have more confidence than White North Carolinians that a variety of activities are prevented—including multiple voting, vote steals, impersonations, non-US Citizens voting, voter fraud, vote count manipulation, software counting manipulation, vote buying, and fraudulent voter registrations. (see Worksheets starting with “Multiple voting” through “Misleading info”)

• In terms of confidence in the overall integrity of elections in North Carolina, there is no difference between Whites and Blacks (roughly 72 percent of both races are very or somewhat confident in the integrity of NC’s elections). (see Worksheet “NC election integrity”)

Respondents’ Educational Level

In recent years, there has been an increasing difference between college educated voters and non-college educated voters across a host of different issues. These results suggest that the “diploma divide” extends to perceptions of confidence and concerns about elections in North Carolina.

• Respondents with a college degree express more confidence in the accurate counting of votes in the 2020 and the 2024 elections than respondents with a High School degree or who never completed High School. (see Worksheets “Your 2020 vote count accurate” and “Your 24 vote county accurate”)

• The same general pattern (people with college degrees having more confidence) extends to attitudes towards mail voting, poll workers, county election administration officials, and the NC State Board of Elections. (see various worksheets on specific topics mentioned).

• People with College degrees also have much more confidence that various kinds of fraud (double-voting, vote tampering, impersonation, non-US citizens voting, vote buying, multiple ballot submissions) are prevented than North Carolinians who don’t have a college degree or never completed High school. (see Worksheets starting with “Multiple voting” through “Misleading info”)

Respondent’s Age

• Younger voters (18-35 years old) tend to be more confident (68 percent) in votes outside of North Carolina being accurately counted (see worksheet “Outside NC 24 vote count”).

 

• Voters 66 years old and up generally have the greatest percentage of confidence (78 percent) in their local election administration, but have the greatest lack of confidence (42 percent) in votes outside of North Carolina being accurately counted in 2024. (See Worksheets “Local admin secure & integrity” and “Outside NC 24 vote count”)

Absentee by Mail Confidence and Support

With North Carolina counties mailing out absentee by mail ballots starting on September 6, two questions gauged North Carolina public opinion regarding this vote method (see Worksheets “ABM secure” and “ABM equitable”):

• Not surprisingly, 62 percent of Republicans have the greatest lack of confidence in absentee by mail as being a “secure way to cast a ballot in North Carolina.”
  • Compared to only 13 percent of Democrats and 36 percent of Independents who lack confidence.

• Nearly two-thirds (65 percent) of those with college degrees or higher have confidence that absentee by mail voting is a secure way to cast a ballot.
  • In comparison, only 51 percent of no high school degree/high school degree have confidence in that vote method.

• Partisan differences are also evident among respondents when asked about their confidence in absentee by mail voting as providing “equitable access to voting for all eligible voters in North Carolina.”
  • 55 percent of self-identified Republicans expressed no confidence
  • Compared to 87 percent of self-identified Democrats who expressed confidence
  • And 59 percent of self-identified Independents expressed confidence.

• Younger respondents (18-35 years old) have the greatest percentage of those who are confident in absentee by mail providing equitable access to casting a ballot (69 percent). Slightly over one-third of older age groups (36 years old and above) are not confident in mail-in voting as an equitable venue for voting.

Regardless of whether your candidate or party wins or loses the election this November in North Carolina, how confident will you be in the safety, security, and integrity of the election in North Carolina?

Very confident.............................................................. 27.4%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 43.2%

Not too confident........................................................ 17.2%

Not confident at all........................................................ 6.0%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 6.3%

 

How confident are in you in the following: That your vote was accurately counted in 2020’s general election. (N=763)

Very confident.............................................................. 52.3%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 27.9%

Not too confident........................................................ 10.5%

Not confident at all........................................................ 7.1%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 2.2%

 

How confident are in you in the following: That North Carolinian’s votes were accurately counted in 2020’s general election.

Very confident.............................................................. 42.7%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 28.7%

Not too confident........................................................ 14.2%

Not confident at all........................................................ 7.9%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 6.6%

 

How confident are in you in the following: That votes outside of North Carolina were accurately counted in 2020’s general election.

Very confident.............................................................. 36.6%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 22.0%

Not too confident........................................................ 18.9%

Not confident at all...................................................... 17.0%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 5.4%

 

How confident are in you in the following: That votes in your county will be accurately counted in 2024.

Very confident.............................................................. 43.5%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 31.1%

Not too confident........................................................ 13.9%

Not confident at all........................................................ 6.3%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 5.3%

 

How confident are in you in the following: That other North Carolinian’s votes beyond your county will be accurately counted in 2024.

Very confident.............................................................. 38.0%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 33.3%

Not too confident........................................................ 15.1%

Not confident at all........................................................ 7.7%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 6.0%

 

How confident are in you in the following: That votes outside of North Carolina will be accurately counted in 2024.

Very confident.............................................................. 31.6%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 29.8%

Not too confident........................................................ 20.0%

Not confident at all...................................................... 12.9%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 5.7%

 

How confident are in you in the following: That elections in your local county will be administered with security and integrity.

Very confident.............................................................. 44.7%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 34.0%

Not too confident........................................................ 11.6%

Not confident at all........................................................ 4.7%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 5.0%

 

How confident are in you in the following: That elections in the state of North Carolina will be administered with security and integrity.

Very confident.............................................................. 40.1%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 34.3%

Not too confident........................................................ 14.5%

Not confident at all........................................................ 6.2%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 4.9%

 

How confident are in you in the following: That elections in the United States overall will be administered with security and integrity.

Very confident.............................................................. 32.2%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 28.5%

Not too confident........................................................ 20.9%

Not confident at all...................................................... 13.3%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 5.1%

 

How confident are in you in the following: In the poll workers who administer early voting and Election Day voting in your community.

Very confident.............................................................. 40.4%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 36.3%

Not too confident........................................................ 11.3%

Not confident at all........................................................ 5.3%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 6.7%

 

How confident are in you in the following: In your county’s election administrators and staff who conduct elections.

Very confident.............................................................. 36.5%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 38.3%

Not too confident........................................................ 14.1%

Not confident at all........................................................ 5.6%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 5.5%

 

How confident are in you in the following: In the state-level election administrators and staff who oversee elections in North Carolina.

Very confident.............................................................. 33.0%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 36.8%

Not too confident........................................................ 18.7%

Not confident at all........................................................ 6.2%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 5.3%

 

How much confidence do you have that the following activities are prevented in North Carolina: People prevented from voting more than once in an election in North Carolina.

Very confident.............................................................. 31.1%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 30.3%

Not too confident........................................................ 18.4%

Not confident at all...................................................... 12.0%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 8.2%

 

How much confidence do you have that the following activities are prevented in North Carolina: People prevented from stealing or tampering with ballots that have been voted in North Carolina.

Very confident.............................................................. 30.8%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 28.7%

Not too confident........................................................ 20.7%

Not confident at all...................................................... 12.3%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 7.5%

 

How much confidence do you have that the following activities are prevented in North Carolina: People prevented from pretending to be someone else when going to vote in North Carolina.

Very confident.............................................................. 27.2%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 30.6%

Not too confident........................................................ 21.2%

Not confident at all...................................................... 13.7%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 7.4%

 

How much confidence do you have that the following activities are prevented in North Carolina: People prevented from voting who are not U.S. citizens in North Carolina.

Very confident.............................................................. 28.2%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 28.2%

Not too confident........................................................ 20.5%

Not confident at all...................................................... 16.0%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 7.1%

 

How much confidence do you have that the following activities are prevented in North Carolina: People prevented from taking advantage of absentee or mail balloting to engage in vote fraud in North Carolina.

Very confident.............................................................. 26.2%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 28.9%

Not too confident........................................................ 22.8%

Not confident at all...................................................... 13.0%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 9.2%

 

How much confidence do you have that the following activities are prevented in North Carolina: Officials prevented from changing the reported vote count in a way that is not a true reflection of the ballots that were counted in North Carolina.

Very confident.............................................................. 29.7%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 31.2%

Not too confident........................................................ 19.2%

Not confident at all...................................................... 11.4%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 8.6%

 

How much confidence do you have that the following activities are prevented in North Carolina: Vote counting software prevented from manipulation in a way to not count ballots as intended in North Carolina.

Very confident.............................................................. 29.7%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 26.9%

Not too confident........................................................ 21.5%

Not confident at all...................................................... 13.1%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 8.9%

 

How much confidence do you have that the following activities are prevented in North Carolina: Prevent paying voters to cast a ballot for a particular candidate in North Carolina.

Very confident.............................................................. 23.7%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 25.7%

Not too confident........................................................ 22.2%

Not confident at all...................................................... 15.1%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response............................... 13.2%

 

How much confidence do you have that the following activities are prevented in North Carolina: Prevent voters from voting under fraudulent voter registrations that use a false phone name and address in North Carolina.

Very confident.............................................................. 28.7%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 32.0%

Not too confident........................................................ 20.5%

Not confident at all...................................................... 11.8%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 7.0%

 

How much confidence do you have that the following activities are prevented in North Carolina: People prevented from submitting too many ballots on behalf of others in North Carolina.

Very confident.............................................................. 28.4%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 26.9%

Not too confident........................................................ 23.1%

Not confident at all...................................................... 12.5%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 9.1%

 

How much confidence do you have that the following activities are prevented in North Carolina: Preventing incorrect or intentionally misleading information on official election websites in North Carolina.

Very confident.............................................................. 25.1%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 33.3%

Not too confident........................................................ 20.8%

Not confident at all...................................................... 12.4%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 8.5%

 

How concerned are you for the following in this year’s election: The safety of North Carolina poll workers during early voting and Election Day

Very concerned............................................................ 16.5%

Somewhat concerned.................................................. 32.8%

Not that concerned...................................................... 29.0%

Not at all concerned.................................................... 18.5%

Don’t know/unsure/no response.................................. 3.2%

 

How concerned are you for the following in this year’s election: The safety of North Carolina election administrators and staff

Very concerned............................................................ 15.6%

Somewhat concerned.................................................. 30.6%

Not that concerned...................................................... 30.5%

Not at all concerned.................................................... 19.6%

Don’t know/unsure/no response.................................. 3.7%

 

How concerned are you for the following in this year’s election: The safety of North Carolina voters casting ballots

Very concerned............................................................ 14.4%

Somewhat concerned.................................................. 33.3%

Not that concerned...................................................... 29.8%

Not at all concerned.................................................... 19.5%

Don’t know/unsure/no response.................................. 3.0%

 

How concerned are you for the following in this year’s election: The safety of candidates who are campaigning and seeking votes in North Carolina

Very concerned............................................................ 14.2%

Somewhat concerned.................................................. 35.1%

Not that concerned...................................................... 31.2%

Not at all concerned.................................................... 16.1%

Don’t know/unsure/no response.................................. 3.4%

 

How important do you think it is for the losing candidates to publicly accept the winning candidates as the legitimate winners in North Carolina?

Very important ............................................................ 53.1%

Somewhat important .................................................. 31.4%

Not too important......................................................... 9.4%

Not at all important....................................................... 6.1%

 

How confident are in you in the following: That absentee by mail voting is a secure way to cast a ballot in North Carolina.

Very confident.............................................................. 29.3%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 27.9%

Not too confident........................................................ 19.4%

Not confident at all...................................................... 17.3%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 6.2%

 

How confident are in you in the following: That absentee by mail voting provides equitable access to voting for all eligible voters in North Carolina.

Very confident.............................................................. 33.7%

Somewhat confident.................................................... 27.3%

Not too confident........................................................ 16.6%

Not confident at all...................................................... 15.3%

Unsure/Don’t know/No response................................. 7.1%

 

SURVEY APPENDIX: This links to a MS Spreadsheet with worksheets that provide data in crosstabs for the questions and subgroups.

Each worksheet is focused on an individual question with crosstab details and analysis for party identification, race, education (collapsed), age groups (collapsed), and generational cohorts. References of “see Worksheet XX” in the General Findings refer to the corresponding labeled worksheets.

The worksheets are organized in order of the survey questions presented in the Top Line Findings.

View the appendix of crosstab data with respondents’ self-Identification of partisanship, race, education (collapsed), age (collapsed), and generations below:

Voter Registration:

• Yes: 923 (92.3%)
• No: 77 (7.7%)

Self-Identified Registered Party:

• Registered Democratic Party: 301 (30.1%)
• Registered Republican Party: 300 (30.0%)
• Registered Unaffiliated: 280 (28.0%)
• Registered Libertarian Party: 5 (0.5%)
• Registered Green Party: 4 (0.4%)
• Registered No Labels Party: 13 (1.3%)
• Registered We the People Party: 2 (0.2%)
• Unsure/Don’t Know: 19 (1.9%)
• Not asked: 77 (7.7%)

Gender:

• Male: 480 (48.0%)
• Female: 520 (52.0%)

Race:

• White: 668 (66.8%)
• Black: 211 (21.1%)
• Hispanic: 38 (3.8%)
• Asian: 15 (1.5%)
• Native American: 21 (2.1%)
• Two or more races: 35 (3.5%)
• Other: 12 (1.2%)

Education:

• No High School: 46 (4.6%)
• High School Graduate: 323 (32.3%)
• Some college: 179 (17.9%)
• 2-year college degree: 126 (12.6%)
• 4-year college degree: 214 (21.4%)
• Post-college degree graduate: 111 (11.1%)

Self-Identified Partisanship (3-point):

• Democrat: 307 (30.7%)
• Republican: 301 (30.1%)
• Independent: 328 (32.8%)
• Other: 39 (3.9%)
• Not sure: 25 (2.5%)

(Superscript numbers in parenthesis at the end of sentences refer to the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative Disclosure Elements [revised 4-21; found at: https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/TI-Attachment-C.pdf]).

The August 2024 Catawba College and YouGov survey was conducted online and paid for by Catawba College’s Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service.^{(1, 2)}

During the period August 7 through 20, 2024, YouGov interviewed 1100 online respondents from North Carolina (using respondent zip codes) who were then matched down to a sample of 1000 to produce the final dataset.^{(4, 5,7)} Participants completed the survey online via computer or smartphone.⁽⁶⁾ The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative "modeled frame" of North Carolina adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.⁽⁴⁾

Full question wording for released results are included in the appendix spreadsheet.⁽³⁾

Weighted data included a sample of 1,000 respondents who are 18 years and older and live in North Carolina; the margin of error (adjusted for weights) is +/-3.87 %; all subgroups will have a higher margin of error.^(8,9)

The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and region. The propensity scores were grouped

into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified

according to these deciles. The weights were then post-stratified on 2020 presidential vote choice as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (3-categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.⁽⁹⁾

YouGov used three attention checks, one open end, one grid item and one multiple select. All three were used in combination when cleaning the data removing anyone who failed two or more attention checks. YouGov also removed the top 2% of speeders and skippers from the data along with using IP address and demographic information to check for duplicate cases. Any suspected duplicate cases are also removed from the final data.⁽¹⁰⁾

All survey research contains unmeasured error and results should be seen as informative, not definitive.⁽¹¹⁾